This is way too much! No way should we keep cutting the interest rates. These constant corrections that are currently occurring via government intervention are a mistake. The market is like a spoiled child, who is in need of a pacifier, but they have far outgrown it. No, we do not need the government to intervene any further. Even on CNBC's closing bell there was talk that more than likely, the "FED" will cut rates tomorrow. One commentator put it, we should not be too surprised, or find it ridiculous, to see further cuts, and that even a cut to 0% on rates is acceptable, because ultimately, its what is going to help the markets and that should matter most. WHAT?!?! Has the world gone mad!!!
Make no mistake, I promote investment into the stock market. However, your robbing Peter to feed Paul. If Bernanke or anyone one else thinks that further reductions will help the markets, I want to give the ivy leaguers some food for thought, we need to have a balance. We are not only delaying the inevitable, but we are causing a longer term slide. I have said, that I do not believe that we will see a depression. I still stand by that statement, however, there is an IF: the government needs to let the markets sort themselves out.
Will a 50% cut in basis points really help the market? It will definitely, I'd say rally, for the hedge funds. Some investors, if they play it right will make money, until another issue comes up, perhaps, for example, the moment our FED cuts, no one else follows (supposedly Europe will follow, but we will see) If no one else follows, we may see the NIKKEI and the HANG SENG start to develop worrisome warts that turn into incessant drops, drops that would make even the most daring of us, up chuck all the shares that we have left. No, now is not the time to cause what would be a global pandemic of recessionary stress, or additional stress, anyhow.
What the market players need to do, is to now work within the ranges provided. If truly the government wants to help, and I don't even like this idea, because, its already over extending our own deficit, it should continue direct capitalization into banking institutions and also provide stimulus packages for the citizenry. If the investors then see more solid depositories increasing, if we have an enhancement in performance within the financials, this will continue to help improve the credit lending abilities of the markets.
There are unfortunate circumstances, however. I can tell you that I am a centrist. I do not believe in parties. I am registered under one, but the parties are for the politicians, and not for us common folk. This whole election has angered me. I am so frustrated, because, if there is even an attempt by the Democrats to increase the capital gains tax, which is going to happen, the market will slump. If the Republicans get there way, and McCain reduces cap gain to 7%, we may see cuts to social programs in education and still the layoffs are going to happen.
What is really disturbing is that what this really seems to be, is a total flip on the value of the dollar. It was not so much the sub-prime crisis alone, for example, that caused these conditions, but the standard evaluations on real estate were too high. This in turn affected pricing in all sectors. We are not, in any way, shape or form, going to see a "magicians administration" come into power. No one has the magic wand to wave to bring the markets from bear to bull. It is within the common investors power to do so. So, why not, invest in a combination of CD's, Bonds and Stocks, with contributions to the 401K, of course minimal, and controlled. Do not select idiotic aggressive products that claim they can get you to retire in the year 2012. The crime of these mysterious financial instruments that make no sense to the general public coincided with the fall of Wall Street as well.
The Street however, does not deserve to be put down. Just bring out the abusers, but first fix the markets. I dread any further cuts by the "FED" on the interest points. However, my recommendations are for the following:
1. Invest in food commodities, but don't heavily throw your weight into one side. Take a slice out of agriculture.
2. Look at stocks like WMT, AAPL, MSFT, ORCL, ABT, MED. Check into these sectors, also. Do your homework before even thinking about these.
3. Now is the time to start picking at various CD's. Let's say Obama wins. Capital Gains tax be damned. There will be ways to skim off as much as possible, but for now, invest in those investments that will bring a profitable turn around within the next six months. Preferably, those BONDS of private companies and CD's, like GMAC is offering a CD at a rate of 4.27% for 12 months and APY of 4.36. You can go for the full time that I believe that we will be in recession , which would be, 36 months at 4.44% rate and APY of 4.55% or even shoot for five years at 5.02% rate and APY of 5.15%, long enough so that if taxes prove to be too high, and Obama is elected, which by the way, I can only assume that he won't go to far with raising income taxes or capital gains, not if the congress nor if he himself wants to continue to be president, but should the worst happen, putting money into cd's and bonds like this, and waiting for a conservative administration to take over, will build your wealth.
One last thing, I agree with Jim Cramer of Mad Money on CNBC. This concept, of buy and hold is dead, yet the fact that the government policies seem to favor this, is the most disturbing idea of all. The technology is in place for all of us to play day trader, or to go ahead and invest in sectors, when properly vested, an individual trader can survive the deadly rapids of the market.
Please be careful, whatever you do, also, if you are reading this, let me know if you agree, you disagree, or say nothing at all. I wish all of you, only one thing, Good Hunting!
Raffa
Monday, October 27, 2008
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